“Low fertility and the State: The efficacy of policy”

by Peter McDonald
(this article from "Population and development review 32(3):485-510 (sept 2006)

In this article, Peter McDonald:

o reviews the causes of low fertility rate in many developed countries
o how these countries, in different institution setting, tried to booster up the fertility
o What is the possible solution for low fertility rate?

The author contends that people do have desire to have family and children, however, the desire was unsatisfied at individual level, mainly due to the unintended consequence of economic and social development. It is not mainly because the people are more materialistic than before, but rather that people use controlled family planning as risk averse strategies.

The two waves of social changes are associated with low fertility rate in many developed countries.

1. Social liberalism or reflexive modernization, beginning in the 1960s and consolidated in the 1970s.

Reflexive modernization is modernization of the principles of industrial society involving assessment by individuals or groups of the appropriateness of existing social institutions for modern life. It has brought a sharply increased capacity for individuals to pursue personal autonomy and to construct their own identity rather than having those identities defined for them by societical norms and institutions.

Individuals are freed from institutional and normative constrains, they become more responsible for their own actions. In regards of family formation, social liberalism lifted the lid on divorce, cohabitation before marriage has increased, as an experiment in a form of intimacy that allowed the greater pursuit of personal autonomy.

Under reflexive modernization, gender equity has partially fulfilled through paid employment, usage of contraceptive technology, legalized abortion right, and increased level of education. However, in other social institutions, notably, family, tax transfer system and working arrangement and condition, there are still great degree of gender inequity. While men and women face increased personal risks from social liberalism, the risks are greater for women.

2. Economic deregulation or the new capitalism, beginning in the 1980s and into the 1990s.

The neo-liberal capitalism holds that free operation of the market is the most efficient and effective form of economic organization. The economic deregulation has enable capitals flow easily to maximum profit and efficiency.

The characteristic of new regime are free flow of capital across international boundaries, free trade, and the right for employers and workers to negotiate wages and working conditions in deregulated environment, and curtailment of government funded social welfare. The old capitalism welfare state system provided job and wages protection in considering of each worker was supporting his wife and children. Under new capitalism, the states remove worker protection, implying that the employers need not have responsible for employee’s family.

Young men and women must devote themselves to maximum their own human capital, implying to delay forming family.

Social liberalism and economic restructuring have lead to two key changes for individuals: the provision of gender equity through an opening up of opportunities for women, and the rise of risk aversion among young people of both sexes in an increasingly competitive labour market.

Gender equity

In the institutions of education and market employment, considerable gender equity was afforded to women as individuals, the movement to gender equity has been focused upon individual-oriented social institutions, however, consequently, family-oriented institutions, especially the family itself, continue to be gender inequity. Women are facing greater risks in family formation than men. Women are faced with a conflict between opportunities and risks in relation to family and paid employment. And modernization has passed the responsibilities and risks to individuals.

Risk aversion under labor market deregulation

Globalization and rising of education levels have created high economic aspirations among young people. The individual often faces three dimensional forces: independence, financial security and family formation. The new capitalism has forced one to pursue higher human capital and financial security, as the result, family formation is put on hold while human capital is accumulated and women are keen to delay family formation till they have secured financially to compensate the loss due to childbearing and childrearing.

The conflict between autonomy and intimacy

Despite of social and economic changes, the family has remained central to most people’s lives even in the most socially liberal countries. (this is consistent with out on class survey, over 95% student agree that family relation is more important than other social relations). The family remains central to the lives of most people, and the quality of family relationships has a very strong association with the quality of life as whole (Nolan 2002)

Liberty and independence are the aims of reflexive modernization. Greater financial security is a goal of new capitalism, family values are the third leg of the tripod, but they have not been supported by governments to the same extend as the other two values. Under the new capitalism, individuals must maximize their utility to the market, that involve acquisition of saleable skills, working experience and a marketable reputation. Reflexive modernization provides individuals with freedom to pursue personal goals. While family values are altruism, that is, time and money freely devoted to others. This conflict leads to many people to be risk aversion.

What government can do in solution of low fertility, in author’s view, is to provide the sense of assurance to young people that if they have family and children, they will be supported by the society. The author believes that states must be principle players in restoring the social balance just as they play key role in supporting other social and economic changers. The first step is to reestablish confidence among young people that they will be able to embark on family formation with tolerable levels of economic loss and acceptable impacts upon individual aspiration.

In Asia, at least three countries have instituted major policy programs to reverse fertility decline, namely Singapore, Japan and Korea, yet, policy has failed to have any great impact in these counties. The solution, according to author, lies in a third wave of social change, a compensatory wave in which the state and other institutions provide a new and substantial priority to the support of family especially the bearing and rearing of children.


Reference

Nolan, J. 2002 “The intensification of everyday life.” In B Burchell, D. Ladipo, and F. Wilkinson (eds.), Job Insecurity and Work intensification. London: Routledeg, pp.112-136